Source: The Hill Times
http://www.thehilltimes.ca/html/index.php?display=story&full_path=2008/december/22/public_service_renewal/&c=2

The Hill Times, December 22nd, 2008
Public service renewal need ‘intensifies’ in tough financial times
James Lahey, deputy secretary to Cabinet for Public Service Renewal, says public service renewal is a top priority, despite bleak economy, cutbacks.
By Cynthia Münster
Canada is facing one of the biggest economic downturns since the Great Depression, but one of the country’s leading public servants says despite the bleak economic outlook and the current program review, public service renewal remains a top priority, and its urgency has “intensified” to ensure the government is well-placed to cope in a globalized world.

James Lahey, the outgoing deputy secretary to Cabinet for Public Service Renewal who will be replaced on Jan. 5, 2009 by Patricia Hassard, told The Hill Times last week that in tough times, federal public service work will be more demanding and challenging, but the stability of public sector employment will be greater and will attract and retain talented people. As well, he said the federal government can take an “ownership position” during tough economic times.

“I wouldn’t want to say that we like crises, but I think we can prosper in terms of attracting and retaining talented employees and keeping them motivated at least as much during crises as during regular times,” said Mr. Lahey.

The public service has hired about 100,000 new federal public servants in the last 10 years and is expected to continue to hire 10,000 to 12,000 new public servants every year. It’s also estimated that 50 per cent of the public service’s senior managers and 25 per cent of the public service can retire by 2012. Already, “tens of thousands” have retired since 2000.

“I’m not going to do any economic forecasts here, but there is enough evidence to suggest it’s not business as usual. I would say that the challenge for government in these circumstances is greater than in normal times,” said Mr. Lahey.

Mr. Lahey says the public service has learned from its mistakes of the 1990s and the government will continue the process of renewing the public service, which he says is a critical time when the government needs quality public service to serve it.

Today’s modern-day federal public servant will have to be stronger, more competent, and more self-confident about taking on difficult responsibilities.

You’ve talked about “a tsunami of retirements” and how we are in the middle of it, what are the challenges coming up with this other half?

“Well, you shouldn’t take my ‘middle of it’ too seriously, all I meant to say was that we were deeply into it already. Quite often when people talked about retirements in the baby boomer generation and so on, they use the future tense, they say, ‘There will be a lot of retirements,’ ‘There will be a big change,’ but that, to me doesn’t recognize the reality of the public service, which is that many people already retired, tens of thousands since 2000, and we’ve hired new people as well, beyond replacing people who retire, so we have a lot of new people already, so we need to be recognizing that the challenge of adapting to younger people, new ways of working and so on, it’s not a tomorrow problem, it’s a today problem….

“Just to replace people who retire or leave for other reasons would mean hiring something like 10,000 to 12,000 permanent employees per year, so that’s a lot of people, so it will continue to be important to put a lot of energy into recruiting the most suitable people, the most energetic people and so on, so what will that mean? That will mean being as clear as we can be about what skills we need and that means being as clear as we can about what the work requires, what our real challenges are, what our priorities are, comparing what we need to what we already have, and looking at what skills can be developed with the people we already have, but what skills are better obtained by hiring new people…

“We’ve got a large number of new people over the last 10 years and the challenge there is for them to develop, to be challenged, to have opportunities to grow, to learn, to become stronger and more competent and more self-confident about taking on difficult responsibilities and that will take increasing focus. In fact, it’s an even bigger challenge, I would say, just numerically than the recruiting side because we already have over 100,000 people, new permanent employees, who have been hired over the last nine, ten years and even if we get 10,000 or 12,000 new ones per year you can see that the people we already have are much more numerous than the ones we will be getting year by year so I would say the bigger challenge going forward is to make sure that people who are already here can grow and become better at what they do and enjoy the work that they do.”

How does the economic downturn, some say a depression is coming, affect the public service renewal?

“First of all, I’m not going to do any economic forecasts here, but there is enough evidence to suggest it’s not business as usual so it’s a good question. I would say that the challenge for government in these circumstances is greater than in normal times. We see this in the United States, for example, where with the failure of banks, with the challenges to the car industry, we find the government, in fact, taking an ownership position in what has traditionally been private businesses. More importantly, people are concerned about the regulatory framework, for example, for mortgages, for the financial institutions, so crafting stimulus packages to try to keep the economy from falling into a depression, designing regulatory regimes and enforcing them to try to prevent excessive or imprudent investments in the private sector, these are all roles for government and so, in many ways, the inherent sort of challenge is greater in periods of change or crisis than in normal times. The other consideration is, government employment, while not guaranteed, is generally thought of as more stable, more reliable, less likely to lead to lay-offs than other kinds of work and when you combine that with the fact that there is a rising level of unemployment and potentially even more unemployment in various industries, the attractiveness of the public sector for Canadians as an employer will be greater…

“I think the work will be inherently more demanding and challenging and I think the attractiveness of security and stability of public sector employment will be greater. So I wouldn’t want to say that we like crises but I think we can prosper in terms of attracting and retaining talented employees and keeping them motivated at least as much during crises as during regular times.”

So the government can benefit in terms of public service renewal, but is it a priority or will it be forgotten with all the other things they have to deal with in a crisis?

“It won’t be forgotten and there are two or three reasons why I’m confident it won’t be forgotten. The first one is we need to go back to: what is renewal about anyway? Well, it’s essentially about two things; it’s about adapting to changes in the external world, about the more ubiquitous and immediate information that surrounds us, and globalization, and the fact that issues are all interconnected horizontally and so these pressures are not reduced in the circumstances that we are involving ourselves in, in fact, they become more intense. And secondly, so renewal, first of all, was about ensuring that we are well-placed to cope with these kinds of changes, so that reason is not diminished, it’s strengthened.

“[The] second reason had to do with adjusting to the demographic changes in the public service, the retirements, the older employees being replaced by the younger employees and again that’s not going to stop, that is still going to be with us … so those basic reasons, for worrying about renewal, are still with us, if anything, they have intensified. There is a second reason why renewal will continue to be at the top of the [PCO] Clerk’s list … I think the understanding that we can’t neglect the continuing development of employees is well established, so I’m completely confident that we will continue to have renewal as a top priority no matter how serious the economic circumstances become.”

In terms of the hiring itself, the process, you’ve talked about some of the challenges, but looking at the numbers, one challenge has been visible minorities. Other groups seem to have gotten better-represented with the years: women and people with disabilities, even aboriginal people, by why is there still a challenge in that sector?

“First of all women, there is no question that the proportion of women in the public service is greater than the proportion of women in society, we’re up in the sort of 56 per cent women in the public service [range] and among younger employees it’s more like 57, 58 per cent, and this increase in the share of women in federal jobs extends to the top jobs as well, so even in the executive positions, right up to the level of deputy ministers, we’re looking at, at least 40 per cent women at all these levels, so it’s not 50 per cent, but when I started in the public service in 1973 there were exactly nine female executives out of something like 2000, so you can see there’s been a revolution.

“In the case of persons with disabilities our numbers are pretty good. You are right, although it’s been pointed out that one of the reasons our numbers aren’t so bad is because we have a relatively older population and because disability tends to become more likely or more prevalent as people become older, and to some degree, we have been growing our own persons with disabilities. We haven’t necessarily been as good as we should be with hiring persons with disabilities who are young and who want to join us so we probably have some work to do there, just not to lose sight of that.

“On aboriginal employees, again the numbers don’t look too bad and that’s good, but they tend to be focused in a few departments, particularly Indian and Northern Affairs of Canada, which has a large portion of its programs relating to Inuit and Indian health and so there is work to be done in the participation of aboriginal people more broadly in the public service and also in more senior roles, so there is still work to be done there as well.

“When we come to visible minority Canadians, there is no question that we’ve got work to do. We still need to increase the proportion of our employees who are from visible minority backgrounds and that’s a moving target too, because we know that the proportion of Canadians who are of visible minority background is growing. We see that from one census to the other and we should expect that that will continue so we have catch up to do and the target is moving, so there is a big challenge….

“I would highlight one other thing too, and we should acknowledge this, that in regard to the question of diversity, in general, visible minority terminology is code for different cultural backgrounds, different religious backgrounds, and there is a lot of diversity within visible minorities.

“It’s not just about the numbers, although numbers are important. More importantly, I would say in the long run is about: do the different points of view and experiences and world views that are part of Canadian society, do they have a place in our workplace? Can people be a black Muslim and be comfortable in the workplace with their values and worldview and so on? Can their perspective on policy questions be taken into account when shaping our policy? Are they part of the mainstream? And increasingly I would say in my experience they are but we need to keep working on that as well.

What other challenges would you say still lay ahead?

“Renewal needs to carry on with what we started and see it through and renewal also needs to kind of move on to the second generations, I would call it a focus on the broader cultural issues that would make us even better as an employer.”

cmunster@hilltimes.com

The Hill Times

In the 2008 Federal Election, Liberal Leader Stephane Dion proposed the “Green Shift” – a carbon tax along with tax cuts and a national poverty reduction plan, along with the most progressive platform that could have the possibility of coming true from a leading political party…

Some info on his green shift
————————–

[la version français suive]

Stephane Dion and the Liberal Party of Canada have released a bold economic and environmental plan that will CUT taxes on those things we all want MORE OF such as income, investment and innovation, and we will SHIFT those taxes to what we all want LESS OF: pollution, greenhouse gas emissions and waste.

This plan if put in place woud make Canada a world leader on combatting climate change while making us more competitive in the global economy of the 21st century.

The plan will be good for the planet and good for your wallet. Not only does the plan involve large tax cuts, there are additional benefits for rural and Northern Canadians, families, seniors and those on fixed incomes. There is also a comprehensive plan to combat poverty.

Don’t listen to lies and fear-mongering from those with a vested interest in not seeing this plan happen. For the REAL facts on the plan we NEED for Canada please see http://www.thegreenshift.ca

To download the detailed plan see here:
http://thegreenshift.ca/pdfs/green_shift_book_en.pdf

Download the Green Shift brochure here:
http://www.thegreenshift.ca/pdfs/green_shift_brochure_en.pdf

Spread the word!

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Stéphane Dion et le Parti libéral du Canada ont lancé un plan audacieux qui réduira les impôts sur ce que nous voulons voir augmenter: revenus, investissements et innovation, et réorienter ces impôts vers ce que nous voulons voir baisser: pollution, rejets de gaz à effet de serre et gaspillage.

Ce plan permettra de lutter contre les changements climatiques tout en s’assurant que le Canada demeurera un chef de file au sein de l’économie mondiale du XXIe siècle.

Le plan sera bon pour l’environnement et bon pour l’économie. Non seulement ce plan prévoit-il des réductions fiscales, mais il comporte également des avantages pour les habitants des régions rurales et du Nord, les familles, les personnes âgées et les personnes ayant des revenus fixes. De plus, il y a un plan complet pour combattre la pauvreté.

N’écoutez pas les mensonges proférés par des personnes qui ont intérêt à ce que ce plan ne se réalise pas. Pour en savoir plus sur ce plan et bien comprendre la nécessité d’y adhérer, nous invitons les Canadiens à visiter le site http://www.letournantvert.ca.

Pour lisez le plan détaillé :
http://www.letournantvert.ca/pdfs/green_shift_book_fr.pdf

Pour voir le brochure du Tournant Vert:
http://www.letournantvert.ca/pdfs/green_shift_brochure_fr.pdf

Diffusez le message!

Contact Info
Website:
http://www.thegreenshift.ca
Recent News
[la version français suive]

All the non-partisan experts agree the Green Shift will be good for the environment and good for Canadians’ wallets:

“I don’t think the plan will be negative on growth. In fact, it will probably be positive. Because what you’re doing is taking taxes off investment and work effort and you’re putting it on to consumption.”

“…the whole concept of the plan is to say first of all we can try to improve our tax policy and our environmental policy at the same time.”

“Carbon taxation has three advantages over cap-and-trade. As prices, carbon tax rates are set with some certainty, making it easier for business to plan investments. The taxes are also applied comprehensively and are therefore more efficient. As a new revenue source, carbon taxes reduce other harmful taxes in the economy, especially taxes on investment, saving and work effort.”

Jack Mintz – Former President and CEO of the C.D. Howe Institute and world-renowned fiscal and tax policy specialist

“The idea is sensible. There’s a growing consensus to do something about emissions. We need to put a price on carbon…We have a fairly stiff tax on gasoline…We have a lower level tax on aviation and diesel. But we have no tax of other pollutants from energy (such as coal). So, it levels the playing field…the average Canadian will be bettter off “
Don Drummond – Chief Economist, TD Group (and previous advisor to the Conservative government)

“The market needs price signals such as a carbon tax….that encourage businesses and individuals to change behaviour”
- Canadian Council of Chief Executives (representing the CEOs of 150 Canadian corporations)

“I believe it is time to establish policy mechanisms around the appropriate pricing of carbon.”
– Thomas D’Aquino, President of the Canadian Council of Chief Executives

“I think that it will take a few years for the Liberal plan to start to make an impact but the point is that they’re proposing something that is – they’ve got the work right, and that’s – we really like that.”

“I actually think that the way forward really is to have a carbon tax regime such as the Liberals’ Green Shift and then over the long run implement a cap-and-trade system as well.”

“As I say, in broad brush strokes, well done, Mr. Dion.”
Stephen Hazell – Executive Director, Sierra Club Canada

“To oppose (the Green shift plan), its just nonsense. It’s certainly the way we got to go,”
- David Suzuki, world renowned environmentalist and member of the Order of Canada

“Mr. Dion’s proposed carbon tax is a good example of the kind of policy Canada needs to fight climate change.”
Marlo Raynolds – Executive Director, Pembina Institute

” it seems to be a solid plan. It’s relatively straightforward, but it looks like it will cut greenhouse gas emissions quite effectively, and in that regard, it probably represents the kind of federal leadership on climate change that’s been missing with this government…”
Pierre Sadik – Policy Advisor, David Suzuki Foundation

“If it’s implemented, I can see this plan making a tangible difference because it puts the machinery in place to reduce greenhouse gases.”

“If they combine these measures with a whole suite of other measures … by 2020 we may have achieved the levels that we need to stem the worst effects of climate change.”
Aaron Freeman – Policy Director, Environmental Defence

“This is a step in the right direction. There has to be a price on carbon and this is a measure that is necessary if we want to confront the issue of climate change.”
Dale Marshall – Climate Change Policy Analyst, David Suzuki Foundation

“It’s definitely an important part of what we need to do to combat the climate crisis, and it’s great to see that we have a political party willing to put front and centre the climate change problem in its campaign proposals for the next election.“
John Bennett – Executive Director, ClimateforChange.ca

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Voici ce qu’en disent les experts :

« Je ne crois pas que le plan empêchera la croissance. En fait, cela la stimulera probablement. Parce que ce que vous faites, c’est réduire les taxes sur les investissements et le travail, pour les réorienter vers la consommation. »

« […] tout le concept du plan nous permet de dire, pour commencer : nous pouvons améliorer notre politique fiscale et notre politique environnementale en même temps. »
Jack Mintz – Ancien président-directeur général du C.D. Howe Institute et spécialiste en budget et en fiscalité de renommée mondiale

« L’idée est judicieuse. Il y a un consensus de plus en plus étendu sur le fait qu’il faut agir sur la question des émissions. Nous devons assigner un prix au carbone. »
Don Drummond – Économiste en chef du Groupe TD

« La taxe sur le carbone que propose M. Dion est un bon exemple du genre de politique dont le Canada a besoin pour lutter contre les changements climatiques. »
Marlo Raynolds – Directeur général du Pembina Institute

« Je crois que cela prendra quelques années pour que le plan libéral ait un impact, mais ce qui est important, c’est que les libéraux proposent une initiative… ils font les bons efforts et c’est… nous aimons vraiment cela. »

« En fait, je crois que pour aller de l’avant, il faut un régime fiscal axé sur le carbone comme le Tournant vert libéral, puis à long terme, il faut un système d’échanges de droits d’émissions. »

« Et je vous dis, bien simplement, chapeau, M. Dion. »
Stephen Hazell – Directeur général du Sierra Club Canada

« Eh bien, cela semble un plan solide. Il est relativement simple, mais il semble qu’il va réduire les émissions de gaz à effet de serre de manière très efficace et pour cette raison, il représente probablement le type de leadership fédéral en matière de lutte contre les changements climatiques qui manque au gouvernement actuel…. »
Pierre Sadik – Conseiller politique de la Fondation David Suzuki

« Si le plan est mis en œuvre, je m’attends à ce qu’il fasse une différence considérable parce qu’il met tout en place pour réduire les émissions de gaz à effet de serre. »

« S’ils combinent ces mesures avec tout un train d’autres mesures […] d’ici à 2020, nous aurons peut-être atteint les niveaux nécessaires pour freiner les pires effets du réchauffement de la planète. »
Aaron Freeman – Directeur des politiques chez Environmental Defence

“C’est un pas dans la bonne direction. Il faut avoir un prix sur le carbone et c’est une mesure nécessaire si on veut s’attaquer aux changements climatiques. »
Dale Marshall – Analyste, politiques sur les changements climatiques, Fondation David Suzuki

« C’est définitivement une partie importante de ce que nous devons faire pour lutter contre les changements climatiques. C’est super de voir qu’un parti politique est prêt à placer le problème des changements climatiques au cœur de son programme pour les prochaines élections. »
John Bennett – Directeur général de ClimateforChange.ca

Source: Globe and Mail
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20081222.wcostimulus23/BNStory/politics/home

Here’s the best way to use stimulus on fiscal and social deficits

JON KESSELMAN

From Tuesday’s Globe and Mail

December 23, 2008 at 12:00 AM EST

The recent employment report delivered shocking news: Canada lost 71,000 jobs, the largest monthly loss in more than 25 years. And job losses are now moving from manufacturing and resources to the much larger service sector. So the smug view that we would avoid the worldwide turmoil was quickly shattered.

Last month’s lame economic and fiscal statement needs to be replaced by activist fiscal policy in January’s federal budget. But what principles should guide the budget?

The government cited infrastructure as its principal target for increased spending. Accelerating infrastructure spending is an appropriate goal, so long as the projects are well chosen. Last month’s fiscal statement aimed to increase infrastructure spending but also sought to avoid deficits by controlling spending on current programs.

That approach suffers from three deficiencies. First, it is false economy – why construct additional public facilities while skimping on equipping and staffing of existing ones? Second, the approach allows conventions of public accounting to distort spending priorities; unlike most other public spending, infrastructure is not counted as current expenditure. Most important, that expenditure-offsetting approach sharply reduces the stimulus for stabilizing the economy. The charade that governments can avoid deficits while addressing the economy’s urgent needs must be abandoned.

Getting more funds into the hands of individuals who most need support should take priority over cutting taxes. Much of traditional tax cuts is simply saved rather than spent by those uncertain about their futures. Reducing tax rates is good medicine for “supply side” growth, but it is not the right prescription for an economy suffering from “demand side” deficiency. Incentives to work harder mean little when available jobs are shrinking. And incentives to save more are inappropriate when pocketbooks should be opened.

Two areas are perfectly suited for increasing spending power: Employment Insurance and provincial welfare for employable persons. Fiscal initiatives for these programs should be structured to phase out or be self-financing after the economy recovers.

First, EI should be enhanced for workers losing jobs in lower-unemployment regions. In the lowest-unemployment regions (cities as diverse as Halifax, Quebec, Ottawa, Regina and Vancouver), claimants need at least 700 hours of insured work to obtain benefits, while, in high-unemployment regions, 420 hours suffice. Moreover, claimants are entitled to a minimum of as little as 14 weeks of benefits or as much as 37, again hinging on the regional jobless rate.

The hours-of-work threshold for eligibility and the weeks-of-benefits formula should be adjusted to reduce the role of regional unemployment rates. A person without a job is equally unemployed, regardless of how many others are unemployed around them. EI benefit rates should also be increased for those engaged in retraining. These changes would be self-financing; after economic recovery, EI premium rates would increase to cover the preceding years’ costs. These enhancements would also be time-limited based on benchmarks of economic recovery.

Second, the federal government should re-enter cost-sharing of provincial expenditures on welfare, an approach last used with the Canada Assistance Plan in 1996. Federal funds should cover at least two-thirds of the costs from recession-induced increases in caseloads of employable beneficiaries. Federal funds should also be provided to cover part of hikes to benefit rates for employable beneficiaries; these benefits are the weakest link in our social safety net.

Federal sharing of welfare costs and the EI benefit enhancements during the downturn will enable provinces to undertake their share in fiscal stimulus even while their revenues are declining. After federal funds for welfare are phased out with economic recovery, some provinces may wish to retain higher benefit levels.

Finally, incremental spending on infrastructure should target not only concrete projects such as roads and bridges but also critical aspects of our social needs. In particular, spending should target housing for the poorest Canadians and assistance for those suffering from disabilities, including mental and addiction issues.

A carefully crafted federal budget next month could address pressing needs of the economy and also bring our political parties closer together. A fiscal deficit is clearly unavoidable, but this period of economic adversity should be seized as an opportunity to redress the social deficit.

Jon Kesselman is Canada Research Chair in Public Finance at Simon Fraser University.

http://www.thestar.com/News/GTA/article/556230

Salaries to increase by 2010 in three-year contract that will push city’s police budget to $1 billion
Dec 19, 2008 04:30 AM
Comments on this story (5)
Michele Henry
Crime Reporter

Toronto’s police budget is set to hit $1 billion at the end of a three-year contract decided by an arbitrator and released yesterday.

The deal, signed earlier this week, increases police salaries 10 per cent by 2010 and will make Toronto officers the highest paid in the province – a demand the union has always insisted upon. The deal is retroactive for 2008 and expires on Dec. 31, 2010.

Now the service and its board must find ways to afford it, officials said.

“A billion-dollar budget is enormous – it’s a huge amount of money,” Mayor David Miller said yesterday. “The police services board will have to look at its expenditures, review its numbers.”

The salary increase is equivalent to a 2 per cent tax hike, he said, and amounts to an additional $24 million a year.

Toronto police Chief Bill Blair said “it is not possible to run the service with the new hike on the current budget.”

By the time the contract expires, a first-class constable will earn $81,249 – about $230 more than a first-class constable at Peel Regional Police.

The service is already looking for ways to cut costs without reducing staff or lowering the standard for maintaining a safe city.

Alok Mukherjee, chair of the Toronto Police Services Board, said the service will benefit financially when the Ontario government picks up $44 million per year for court security by 2012. The federal government should also pay for part of the marine unit and joint force operations, he said.

The contract does include some cost-saving measures, such as allowing the annual increases to be phased in over the course of each year, rather than laid out entirely each January.

Mukherjee said he was satisfied with the contract. “It is fair,” he said. “And it is pretty close to what our offer was in February.”

The new contract comes sooner than expected after a 13-month battle between the Toronto Police Association and the board.

Arbitrator William Kaplan did not award Family Day as an additional benefit for officers, but the contract provides one lieu day to full-time employees.

While the union didn’t get everything it was hoping for, association president Dave Wilson said the deal is “good enough” to stop the service from losing members to other provincial forces that, until now, were offering higher pay along with shorter commutes.

“The numbers give us what we need,” he said, “to be able to retain members and ensure we will continue to attract people to Toronto.”

http://toronto.ctv.ca/servlet/an/local/CTVNews/20081217/ont_seats_081217/20081217?hub=Toronto

Ontario to get 21 more seats in Parliament

Updated: Wed Dec. 17 2008 1:49:38 PM

ctvtoronto.ca

Ontario will now have 21 more seats in the House of Commons as the federal government quietly agreed to give in to the province’s demand for greater representation.

Originally, Prime Minister Stephen Harper said that Ontario would receive 10 seats in the House under a revamped distribution plan meant to reflect a growing population in the province as well as Albert and British Columbia.

However, on Wednesday, Premier Dalton McGuinty told reporters that he and Harper had come to an understanding when they met in Ottawa last Friday.

“I spoke with him about that and I think we’ve fixed it,” McGuinty said when he was asked if the seat issue had come up during their meeting.

McGuinty said Harper agreed to the extra seats without asking Ontario to give up anything in return.

“I think there was a sense that it was the right thing to do,” he said.

McGuinty had voiced his concern over the redistribution plan that would have given Canada’s most populous province one MP for every 115,000 residents. He said other key provinces had better representation with one MP for every 105,000 citizens.

At one point, the issue caused a deep tension between Ottawa and Ontario. Peter Van Loan, the Conservative government house leader, called McGuinty the “small man of Confederation” for his demands.

McGuinty insisted he just wanted fairness and shot down accusations he was acting un-Canadian for wanting the most for Ontario.

The premier said that during his meeting with Harper, the prime minister argued that Ontario was better off because of the redistribution plan. Harper pointed out that under the old formula, Ontario would have only received four additional seats.

“I said ‘yeah, that’s true, but that’s not the point,” McGuinty explained. “The point is we should be working towards fairness, and over time we would have continued to fall behind.”

Ottawa’s concession is the latest move on the federal government’s part to show a unified front with the Ontario Liberals as both governments try to hammer out a rescue package for the auto sector.

With files from The Canadian Press

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McGuinty rejects call for lower corporate taxes
http://toronto.ctv.ca/servlet/an/local/CTVNews/20081217/mcguinty_taxes_081217/20081217?hub=TorontoHome

Updated: Wed Dec. 17 2008 11:51:57 AM

The Canadian Press

TORONTO — Ontario Premier Dalton McGuinty is rejecting a call from Canada’s banks to cut corporate taxes or risk losing high-paying financial sector jobs to other jurisdictions.

McGuinty fired back today, saying it’s no surprise that the banks are advancing their cause as being the “ultimate solution” in the face of the global economic crisis.

He says it would be helpful if the banks mentioned that Ontario sends about $23 billion to Ottawa for redistribution in other provinces — which some have used to slash taxes.

McGuinty says his government has already cut businesses taxes and can’t go any further if it wants to climb out of a looming deficit.

He says the banks also have a role to play in stimulating the economy, such as passing on the full interest-rate cut made by the Bank of Canada to ease the credit crunch.

The Canadian Bankers Association — which represents 51 domestic and foreign banks — told Ontario in a carefully worded pre-budget submission to cut corporate taxes in its next budget.

The association is asking the McGuinty Liberals to reduce its corporate income tax rate to 10 per cent from its current level of 14 per cent.

http://www.iht.com/articles/2008/12/16/healthscience/climate.php

The Associated Press
Published: December 16, 2008

WASHINGTON: More than two trillion tons of land ice in Greenland, Antarctica and Alaska have melted since 2003, according to new NASA satellite data that show the latest signs of what scientists say is global warming.

More than half of the loss of landlocked ice in the past five years has occurred in Greenland, based on measurements of ice weight by the Grace satellite, said a NASA geophysicist, Scott Luthcke. The Greenland melt seems to be accelerating, he said.

NASA scientists planned to present their findings Thursday at the American Geophysical Union conference in San Francisco. Luthcke said Greenland figures for the summer of 2008 were not yet complete, but the ice loss this year, while still significant, would not be as severe as in 2007.

The news was better for Alaska. After a precipitous drop in 2005, land ice increased slightly in 2008 because of large snowfalls, Luthcke said. Since 2003, when the NASA satellite started taking measurements, Alaska has lost 400 billion tons of land ice.

In assessing climate change, scientists generally look at several years to determine the overall trend. Melting of land ice, unlike sea ice, increases sea levels very slightly. In the 1990s, melting Greenland ice did not make world sea levels rise; now that island is adding about half a millimeter to the sea level a year, a NASA ice scientist, Jay Zwally said.

Melting land ice in Greenland, Antarctica and Alaska has raised global sea levels about one-fifth of an inch in the past five years, Luthcke said. Sea levels also rise from water expanding as it warms.

Other research being presented this week at the geophysical meeting points to more concerns about ice melting because of global warming, especially sea ice.

“It’s not getting better; it’s continuing to show strong signs of warming and amplification,” Zwally said. “There’s no reversal taking place.”

Scientists studying sea ice will announce that parts of the Arctic north of Alaska were 9 degrees Fahrenheit to 10 degrees, or about 5 degrees Celsius to 6 degrees, warmer this past autumn, a strong early indication of what researchers call the Arctic amplification effect. That is when the Arctic warms faster than predicted, and warming there is accelerating faster than elsewhere on the globe.

As sea ice melts, the Arctic waters absorb more heat in the summer, having lost the reflective powers of vast packs of ice. That absorbed heat is released into the air in the autumn. That has led to autumn temperatures in the last several years that are 6 degrees Fahrenheit to 10 degrees (3.5 degrees to 6 degrees) warmer than they were in the 1980s, said Julienne Stroeve, a research scientist at the National Snow and Ice Data Center in Boulder, Colorado.

That is a strong and early impact of global warming, she said.

“The pace of change is starting to outstrip our ability to keep up with it, in terms of our understanding of it,” said Mark Serreze, senior scientist at the snow and ice data center, a co-author of the Arctic amplification study.

Two other studies presented at the conference assess how Arctic thawing is releasing methane – a potent greenhouse gas. One study shows that the loss of sea ice warms the water, which warms the permafrost on nearby land in Alaska, thus producing methane, Stroeve said.

A second study suggests even larger amounts of frozen methane are trapped in lake beds and sea bottoms around Siberia and they are starting to bubble to the surface in some spots in alarming amounts, said Igor Semiletov, a professor at the University of Alaska in Fairbanks. Late last summer, Semiletov found methane bubbling up from parts of the East Siberian Sea and the Laptev Sea at levels 10 times higher than those of the mid-1990s, he said.

The amounts of methane in the region could dramatically increase global warming if they get released, he said. That, Semiletov said, “should alarm people.”

http://www.thehilltimes.ca/html/index.php?display=story&full_path=2008/december/15/cons_tremendous_pressure/&c=2

The Hill Times, December 15th, 2008
Conservatives under ‘tremendous pressure’ to put together next budget
Tories have a shorter deadline and face extraordinary political and economic circumstances.
By Bea Vongdouangchanh
The federal government is under “tremendous pressure” to put together the next federal budget with a much shorter deadline and under extraordinary political and economic circumstances, say experts.

A communications strategist familiar with the budget process said the Conservative government had a tendency not to consult on anything, but is changing tracks this time because of the current political situation.

“In this particular case, it will matter a lot because they really need to know if the opposition parties don’t agree with the budget, will they at least get the approval of outside economists and business groups so they can go to an election saying, ‘We did the right thing and the opposition refused to endorse it’? So they will listen very carefully to what the demands are from the outside world for an appropriate budget under the circumstances and they will work very hard to meet those expectations,” the strategist said. “I think that game is over and they understand that their political survival depends on appropriate consultation this time.”

As well, the Conservatives need to consult widely on its budget to be tabled on Jan. 27 if it is to survive the “life or death” situation, say experts and opposition MPs who are still leery of the government’s ability to “make Parliament work.”

Liberal MP Scott Brison (Kings-Hants, N.S.), his party’s finance critic, said last week that he will be meeting with Finance Minister Jim Flaherty (Whitby-Oshawa, Ont.) on Dec. 15 to discuss a stimulus package for the economy during this downturn. While he said it was Mr. Flaherty who reached out to him and asked for a meeting, Mr. Brison said it doesn’t necessarily mean a change.

“Talk is cheap, let’s see what happens,” Mr. Brison said. “I think Canadians want us to make Parliament work but the person who has poisoned Parliament the most is Stephen Harper. Just because he’s now put on his sweater vest again doesn’t mean we should take him seriously.”

After successfully asking Governor General Michaëlle Jean for a Parliamentary prorogation on Dec. 4, Prime Minister Stephen Harper (Calgary, Southwest, Alta.) told reporters that there has to be “some trust building on both sides” when it comes to making Parliament work. “We are planning here the quickest federal budget in history. The quickest federal budget in history,” he said. “I don’t believe the opposition parties—I’m not saying they are insincere—but I don’t think they, their best efforts could produce a budget any quicker than that. I think if ultimately they had to follow their own efforts, we will see the budget a lot later than Jan. 26. So I would simply encourage them to engage with the government.”

TD Bank chief economist Don Drummond, who worked at the Department of Finance for 23 years as an assistant deputy minister responsible for coordinating and planning the annual federal budget, told The Hill Times last week, however, that pre-budget consultations only have a small impact on the final budget document. “You quite often hear the same things year after year. I don’t want to be totally dismissive of it, but I think it’s very unlikely that they will hear anything in the budget consultations that they’re not already aware of and contemplating,” he said.

Last week, Mr. Flaherty announced a national online pre-budget consultation in addition to five national roundtable discussions he will be participating in across the country.

“The government is open to innovative new ideas that would help shape the plan for economic recovery in the 2009 budget,” Mr. Flaherty said in a press release, adding that some of the economic stimulus should address housing, infrastructure, training, industrial sectors and improving access to credit. Mr. Flaherty will be going to Saint John, N.B., Saskatoon, Sask., Montreal, Que., Thornhill, Ont., and Victoria, B.C. in addition to meeting with the provincial and territorial finance ministers on Dec. 17 in Saskatoon.

The Department of Finance is responsible for organizing this type of consultation as part of the budget making process. Normally the Parliamentary finance committees would also help do pre-budget consultations, but because of the fall election and early prorogation, committees did not meet. Both Mr. Drummond and the strategist said the short time period will not affect the budget outcome.

“I think they’re going to be working under tremendous pressure. They’re capable of meeting it, but normally they really did need an extra month,” the strategist said, adding that officials from Finance will be working 14 to 16 hours a day seven days a week on the 21st floor of the Finance Department building, where the minister’s political office is located, on O’Connor Street in downtown Ottawa to create the budget. The Finance Department officials will also be working with officials from the Privy Council Office.

The first order of business for budget-making is creating a status quo outlook document which shows where the country’s finances stand and a “pressures” document showing some of the issues which have a financial cost to the government. A strategy is then developed to meet the political situation of the day, starting with the governing party’s election platform and in this case creating a balance between an economic stimulus and preventing a structural deficit. After consultations are conducted, both publicly and bilaterally with other departments and ministers, the minister of finance will then receive an overall document with various options that would then be tested in the public. For instance, focus groups would be created, polling would be done on budget speech language and support from private sector economists would be sought.

“They won’t go to outside people and say, ‘Here’s our budget, what do you think?’ because that’s a breach of budget confidentiality, but what they do in the budget research is they may test a variety of options, three of which are wrong and one of which is right so nobody can get the right idea,” the strategist said.

At the same time this is going on, similar meetings will take place on the 20th floor of the Finance Department, the deputy minister’s floor, where officials write daily memos to the minister on the priority of the day. The Finance Minister would then make decisions on what to include in the budget, item by item. “Every time he makes a decision they put in a tick for the decision made, they add that cost to the framework and they say now we’ve got x amount left,” the strategist said. “He sits at the table and makes every decision. And he’s got to get it ratified by the Prime Minister. This is full-time work.”

Mr. Drummond said that the status quo document is often generated by the fall fiscal update. In this case, he said, the department will have to revise it because “there’s an overwhelming sense, or a strong belief on my part that that wasn’t an appropriate starting point.” He said that the $100-million surplus shown in the fiscal update is not “a very reliable indicator of the future” because it will be worse once the budget is tabled.

Mr. Brison said one of the ways to rebuild trust is for the government to provide an “honest” update as to the country’s finances. “There were significant flaws in the fiscal update,” he said, noting the numbers did not match private sector ones. He did not say, however, exactly what his party is looking for, only that he is looking forward to meeting Mr. Flaherty.

NDP House Leader Libby Davies (Vancouver East, B.C.) said last week that her party is looking for economic stimulus in areas such as transit, housing, childcare, employment insurance reform, retraining, and helping workers who have lost their jobs.

NDP MP Joe Comartin (Windsor-Tecumseh, Ont.) said one of the important aspects of stimulating the economy is for the government to make a clear statement that it will actually create stimuli. “It doesn’t need right now to have absolute dollars attached to it,” Mr. Comartin said.

Mr. Drummond said that while Canada does need an economic stimulus package, it should only be a small one.

“A lot of the other countries are doing things like two per cent of their gross domestic product range. I don’t think that’s warranted in Canada. We’re much more influenced by international events than any domestic stimulus. I think we’ve fought a hard battle to stay out of persistent structural deficit and a huge package would just put us back into that problem,” he said, noting a sufficient stimulus and subsequent deficit to carry would be $8- to $10-billion per year. He said the government could go as high as $15-billion, however.

Last week in an interview on CBC television, Mr. Harper said his government would introduce a stimulus package in budget in order not “to lose our long-run financial strength” during the downturn. “We obviously don’t want to enter into a deficit that would be permanent and long-term,” he said. “We’re prepared to do both, some short-term actions but also making sure that we’re staying on a good long-term financial path. Those elements in the financial statement, obviously Parliament wasn’t prepared to deal with them last week, but they do have to be dealt with. They will be part of the big budget package we present in January.”

While Mr. Comartin said he has “no hope” that the government will deliver a budget that’s satisfactory to the opposition and his party will vote “against this government at the first opportunity,” Liberal MPs said they will keep an open mind about the budget until they see it.

Liberal MP Allan Tonks (York South-Weston, Ont.) said it would be “premature” to judge the budget. “The Prime Minister’s made it very clear that he’s inviting input. Let’s see what impact that has,” he said. “The coalition has served its purpose in bringing us to this point with respect to a new approach it appears of working together, government and opposition together. Now let’s see what that brings forward.”

In his interview with CBC, Mr. Harper said it’s in the best interests of his government to come to a consensus on the budget and will reach out to the opposition to make it happen. “Certainly among the two major parties … we can agree on the short term to make sure we do whatever we can to help the economy, to keep people working, to keep from sliding deeper into the morass we’re seeing around the world,” he said. “I think the big national parties should be working together to fix the economy and we’re more than willing to do that, and I hope that the next leader, the first thing he’ll do is be willing to sit down with me to have that kind of discussion.”

bvongdou@hilltimes.com

The Hill Times

http://www.thehilltimes.ca/html/index.php?display=story&full_path=2008/december/15/pm_reach_out/&c=2

The Hill Times, December 15th, 2008
PM wants to reach out, but opposition parties say they’ve been stung
Opposition MPs want to know: When is the real Stephen Harper going to stand back up again?
By Bea Vongdouangchanh
Prime Minister Stephen Harper says he will try reach out to the opposition parties in an effort to save his newly-elected minority government next month when Parliament returns, but opposition MPs say “the trust” has been irreparably poisoned by the Prime Minister himself.

“I think for [there to be] decorum, for the House to function, there has to be a degree of respect and there was absolutely none shown by the government,” Liberal Whip Rodger Cuzner (Cape Breton-Canso, N.B.) told The Hill Times last week. “I’m quite certain that there are many members of the Conservative Party that were appalled—if not appalled, at least surprised—by the degree of disrespect the Prime Minister showed for the House. I don’t know where you go. Do I think we’re ready to kiss and make up? Absolutely not.”

The NDP and Bloc Québécois, according to news reports, had discussed the idea of a coalition government prior to Finance Minister Jim Flaherty’s (Whitby-Oshawa, Ont.) fiscal update in November, but after that all three parties joined forces after Mr. Flaherty’s update failed to include any economic stimulus plans as well as future plans to cut most of the public financing to all political parties. The NDP and Liberals want to form a coalition government, propped up by the Bloc.

NDP MP Joe Comartin (Windsor-Tecumseh, Ont.) said last week that the last few days of the first session of the 13-day old 40th Parliament were “the worst” he’s seen in his eight years in Parliament. “It was the first time I was called a ‘traitor’ so it’s as bad as it’s ever been. Those last two days, in particular, the Tuesday and the Wednesday were quite horrendous in the House. The Conservatives decided they were going to hijack it with their bullying tactics and they did,” he said, noting that emotions flared when Conservatives thought they could lose power.

“At the human level, they were looking at their government being threatened to the point of being brought down, that their ability to govern, their ministerial positions, their Parliamentary positions were all being put to the test to the point of being extinguished,” Mr. Comartin said. “When you’re operating at that level of threat, as they were seeing it, you get that kind of emotional response which is totally out of control and out of keeping with what a Parliament should be like, but at a human level, you can understand.”

Liberal MP Martha Hall Findlay (Willowdale, Ont.) said she was offended by the government’s “separatism” messaging about Stéphane Dion (Saint Laurent-Cartierville, Que.), who spent seven years as the intergovernmental affairs minister during the Quebec referendum crisis. “When we saw Stephen Harper and the Conservatives using words like ‘traitor’ and ‘treason’ in dealing with someone like Stéphane Dion who spilled blood and guts for 10 years for the unity of this country, it was the worst, the lowest I have ever seen Canadian politics,” she said last week. “To make this a national unity issue and to make those allegations of a man like Stéphane Dion, to whom we owe, the entire country owes, a debt of gratitude on the national unity file was appalling.”

Government House Leader Jay Hill (Prince George-Peace River, B.C.) told The Hill Times recently that he was also disappointed in the opposition parties’ attempt “to overturn the results of the election” after much was said about cooperation and increasing civility in the House at the beginning of the session. “I’m very disappointed in what has transpired over the past couple of weeks,” he said. “When we learned that the New Democrats and the Bloc Québécois have been conspiring virtually since the election campaign to overturn the results of the election and bring down the government, that’s extremely disappointing. I don’t think that’s what Canadians wanted.”

While Mr. Cuzner said the trust was lost as soon as the government tabled the economic update with partisan attacks rather than an economic stimulus package, Mr. Comartin said for him it was the Conservatives’ move to eliminate pay equity complaints at the Human Rights Commission. “It was listening to the finance minister slam the pay equity issue. I listened to him, watched his body language, the tone of his voice and the words he used,” Mr. Comartin said. “For him to treat them [women] that way, that was the final straw for me. Everybody talks about the opposition snapping, that’s when I snapped. I just said, ‘These people cannot be allowed to govern this country.’”

During a press conference on Dec. 4 when Prime Minister Stephen Harper (Calgary Southwest, Alta.) announced Parliament would be prorogued until Jan. 26, 2009 and in a rare CBC TV interview with Peter Mansbridge last week, he said he is willing to reach out to the opposition parties and to work with them to create a budget.

“I’m optimistic that the next leader of the opposition may want to look at a different kind of arrangements in the best interest of the country, and I can assure you, and I can assure Canadians it’s in the interests of the government to find a consensus, certainly among the federalist parties, and certainly among the two major parties to find things we can agree on in the short-term to make sure we do whatever we can to help the economy, to keep people working, to keep from sliding deeper into the morass we’re seeing around the world,” said Mr. Harper to Mr. Mansbridge last week. “That has got to be our primary interests. We’re going to have an election later. Let’s have it, you know, a couple of years from now. For now, I think the big national parties should be working together to fix the economy, and we’re more than willing to do that, and I hope that the next leader, I hope the next Liberal leader, the first thing he’ll do is be willing to sit down with me to have that kind of discussion.”

Conservative MP James Rajotte (Edmonton-Leduc, Alta.) echoed those sentiments last week after the Tories’ caucus meeting. “The mood was certainly a good one, but it was a mood recognizing that we have a challenge in front of us in terms of presenting a budget at the end of January that passes and gets the approval of Parliament,” he said of the Conservative caucus mood. “I think we all recognize that the time we’re in, especially with the economic instabilities that Canadians are looking to us for leadership and they’re looking for us to work together. From both those aspects, you’ll see, I hope you’ll see, all members of Parliament endeavouring to do that. I know you’ll see certainly from our caucus, because that’s what the prime minister has said to us. He wants us to work together and do our best to represent not only the Canadians who voted for us but also all Canadians. This is the time that demands that of us so I think you’ll very much see that over the next few weeks.”

Some members of the opposition said last week, however, that they still could not see how they could rebuild trust with the Conservatives in the absence of “concrete” evidence the government is willing to work with the opposition and not change course when it suits them. “There is nothing about asking the Governor General for prorogation that inspires any greater level of confidence. He has lost our trust. We do not trust Stephen Harper,” Ms. Hall Findlay said. “He can do his sweater vest routine as he did last [week] and appear to be conciliatory and then the question that it begs is, ‘Well, when is the real Stephen Harper going to stand back up again?’ Me personally, I can’t think of anything that Stephen Harper will do to inspire the confidence he clearly lacked the week before Parliament was prorogued.”

NDP House Leader Libby Davies (Vancouver East, B.C.) told The Hill Times last week that Mr. Harper has had opportunities “to demonstrate that what he says is what he’s going to do” but he has consistently failed. “I think his words ring very hollow. I think there’s a great deal of mistrust in him from Canadians and certainly from a majority of Members of Parliament,” she said. “Given what he did last week in shutting down the House to save his own skin, I think he’s lost all credibility and so his rather lame rhetoric that he now wants to work with people and listen to the opposition parties rings hollow and is not to be believed.”

Mr. Comartin agreed, saying that even if the opposition parties gave their input to government, as they did on the economic and fiscal update, the Conservatives would simply not take it into account.

“The problem is it doesn’t seem to matter,” he said. “All of us gave them very specific suggestions as to what was needed including the need to recognize just how serious an economic crisis we were confronted with. Instead of that, we get the totally partisan attack and there’s really no hope that they would change.”

Mr. Hill said the table could also be turned on the opposition. The government made concessions to the opposition by removing from the economic update legislation the contentious issues, such as the right to strike and the elimination of public political party financing, but it was not good enough for the opposition, he said. “We said we were willing to negotiate and consult on other issues and what happened? It made not a wit of difference to the opposition. Why? Because this was their plan all along,” Mr. Hill said. “This was premeditated. Everything they said to Canadians since the election about wanting to make this Parliament work, has been proven to be untrue.”

Mr. Rajotte said he was hopeful that all the parties could work together and rebuild trust amongst each other. “I think there are all sorts of cross party friendships and working relationships that have developed over the last number of years. I think people of other parties can certainly work together with us as a government,” he said.

bvongdou@hilltimes.com

The Hill Times

http://www.thestar.com/News/Ontario/article/553525
The Star

New rules on cigarette sales hurting even the scrappiest of variety store operators, who already work long hours and see tiny profit margins
Dec 14, 2008 04:30 AM
Lesley Ciarula Taylor
IMMIGRATION REPORTER

The clock with the lavender plastic rim on the back wall of H&H Convenience is an hour and 18 minutes fast. This means nothing to Almaz Nebai. She tells time by the front door.

Starting at 4:30 p.m., it opens every few minutes. That lasts three hours. After that, every 20 minutes or so for another hour, then it tapers off until midnight.

A young Hispanic woman wants her regular small pack of Podium cigarettes, the cheapest at $6 with tax. A man in Docksiders and khakis buys two cans of Arizona tea and stuffs them into a backpack. An Asian woman in heels pulls money from her Louis Vuitton wallet to pay for two packs of DuMaurier. A middle-aged man wants a small Peter Jackson Light with his two cans of Arizona.

“If I get a dollar from the cigarettes, I’m happy,” says Nebai.

“With Arizona, there’s not much profit, a few cents, but my customers love it. It’s good for you.”

Times are tough all over, but “not much profit,” that might as well be the theme song for Ontario’s convenience stores, which have been struggling to get by since the province banned the open display of cigarettes last summer. Between 45 and 65 per cent of corner store profits came from cigarette sales; since such “power walls” were banned that’s been cut by 30 to 50 per cent.

Dave Bryans, president of the Ontario Convenience Stores Association, expects a third of Ontario’s 10,000 convenience stores will be out of business in five years unless the province curbs illegal tobacco sales and starts letting proven, reliable stores sell beer and wine.

But, for now, shopkeepers like Nebai, earning just pennies per hour, make do selling what they can.

Cigarettes, snacks and drinks pay the bills, but not all of them. Since she bought the business in April and moved into the flat at the back, she’s been hunting for deals at Costco and Cash and Carry, clicking through Internet sites to find better suppliers. Rent is $1,600 a month.

A woman at Cash and Carry sent Nebai to Imperial Tobacco, so she gets some brands delivered. The rest she buys every morning, before she opens, whatever she is low on. Podium, made in Caledonia by Lanwest Manufacturing for sale off-reserve, comes from Costco.

With a diploma in accounting from Algonquin College in Ottawa and marketing courses from Seneca, Nebai has plans for this corner north of the Dundas West subway station. There’s a Slovenian deli next door, a Jehovah’s Witness temple down the street. Budget, Price Chopper and Shoppers are nearby. Houses on the streets behind her sell for just under a half-million. The store was Lee-Bee’s West Indian Grocery for years before a couple tried it as a variety store, then gave up and sold to Nebai. She inherited candles, ceramic frogs, hair extensions and shelves of Christmas decorations with the hardware, Pringles, canned spaghetti sauce and kitchen stuff.

Around 11 one morning, she grinds Van Houtte beans for a fresh pot, splits a pack of Hostess cupcakes on two napkins and settles down to talk.

“I loved Ottawa, but when I came here, I loved Toronto, too. It was my first time driving on a highway when I came here from Ottawa.”

“I found this place online for a reasonable price. It’s a really good location, the main customer is from the subway, people back and forth in the morning and evening. During the day, they come from the neighbourhood. There are a lot of East Bloc people living around here. Everyone is very nice, very nice. It was a struggle at first. I was sometimes shocked that nobody was here, but it’s picking up, slowly.”

She and a friend left Asmara, the once-lovely Italianate capital of Eritrea, in 1985, when the 30-year civil war with Ethiopia was at its most brutal, walking for 11 days into Sudan. She was 25. “It was a terrible time. We were hiding from Ethiopian soldiers and Eritrean fighters. But the land around us as we walked was beautiful and we made a promise, my friend and I, that we would come back. She went to Sweden. She called me a few years ago to ask, `Remember the promise?’ But she is dead now, of cancer.”

There’s not much room for sentimentality. A woman in a hijab and long skirt with no time to waste floats in looking for a toy for her son, who is 4 today. She leaves with Spider-Man and a long-distance calling card.

“I am so happy here,” Nebai says. “There is hope for the future. I’m always thinking, planning the strategy.”

She’s been asking the Ontario Lottery Corporation for a terminal and might just get one this month. If she gets approved and there is a machine available, the security deposit runs from $2,000 to up to $6,000 for a full-scale Lotto Centre.

A key-cutting service, cellphone cards, movie rentals, maybe stamps although a store not far away already sells them and Canada Post picks its spots based on postal code. If she buys 60 DVD movies, a company will throw in another 1,000 but she needs a $100 Film Exchange Retail Licence to rent them. Her cut from the ATM machine is half the $1.50 service fee; if she buys it for $2,500, her cut is 85 per cent.

“I tried bread but I had to eat it myself. Perishables are a waste of time – people go to Price Chopper.”

She tours the shelves, rating each item. “Bathroom goods are well-demanded. The house materials are really working well.”

She brought a Zippo lighter display cabinet up from the basement and added cigarette cases to the stock because customers asked for them. If she gets the lottery machine, if she gets the cell phone card business (a $1,500 down payment, then $14 a month), if she can buy the ATM machine, if she can rent DVDs, if she builds up enough loyal customers, she might make it.

The store opens at 9 a.m., closes at midnight. “Sometimes, it can be like a prison.” Then she smiles. “I didn’t marry, I tried to. Now I like not answering to someone.”

Her sister and two brothers, one with a master’s in engineering and another with a degree in economics, wanted her to move to Germany to reunite the family, but she prefers Canada. After a refugee camp in Sudan, she had gone to England for surgery on her leg, gnarled with polio. A United Church in Ottawa sponsored her as a refugee.

“It is amazing. I never thought that I would live in Canada. We studied it in geography in school – lots of snow! – and now I’ve become a Canadian. I feel at home here. Everyone is from far away.”

——————————–

CORNER ECONOMICS

The classic mom-and-pop independent corner store in Ontario brings in from $30,000 to $50,000 a year.

For two people working 12-hour days seven days a week, that’s from 49 to 81 cents an hour between them.

Dave Bryans, president of the Ontario Convenience Stores Association, and Hugh Large, an industry consultant and commentator who lives in Ballantrae, Ont., paint this picture of Ontario convenience stores:

• 75,000 people work in them.

• 85 per cent of the operators are immigrants.

• From 45 to 65 per cent of their profit was from cigarette sales, which have a low profit margin. Since the display wall went, that’s dropped by 30 to 50 per cent.

• Snacks and drinks are the second biggest category. Snacks carry the highest profit margin. Water and energy drinks are expanding the most dramatically and now each represent 20 per cent of drinks sold.

• 70 per cent of sales are snack and candy impulse buys.

• Nearly half of the cigarettes sold in Ontario and a quarter of those bought by teenagers are illegal. The highest teen contraband rates, from 40 to 45 per cent, are in Mississauga, Aurora, Newmarket and Pickering.

• 90 per cent of stores check for age ID for cigarette sales.

• More than half of the stores are chains and they’re the most likely to survive, with stores such as Rabba that are the most diversified in the best position. Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc., which operates Couche-Tard, Provi-Soir, Dépanneur 7, Mac’s Convenience Stores and Beckers Milk, is the largest chain in Canada. Seven-Eleven has 500 stores from B.C. to Ontario. There are more than 150 Hasty Markets in the province.

• Lottery tickets are 10 to 12 per cent of business, with a low profit margin. Convenience stores in Ontario sell 1.4 billion tickets a year.

• ATMs are a small percentage of business; the commission on phone calls is also small.

• Shoppers Drug Mart, Tim Hortons and the combined store-and-gas-station are the biggest competitors, followed by 24-hour supermarkets.

• The benchmark for survival is 500 to 1,000 people living within a 1.6-kilometre radius.

• Groceries, often taking the biggest share of space and once a mainstay, are now the least profitable or sellable items.

• Healthier and grab-and-go foods are increasingly popular but slow to be stocked.

- Lesley Ciarula Taylor

CTV
http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/story/CTVNews/20081216/conference_board_081216/20081216?hub=Canada

Conference Board calls for $10-13 billion in stimulus

Updated Tue. Dec. 16 2008 10:05 PM ET

The Canadian Press

OTTAWA — The Conference Board of Canada says Ottawa should inject $10 billion to $13 billion in additional spending into the January budget to support the struggling economy.

The Ottawa-based think-tank said Tuesday that this stimulus would combine with billions in lost tax revenues to create a deficit of $20 billion or more in the next fiscal year.

“But that is a price worth paying for a faster recovery and a return of consumer and investor confidence,” said Conference Board economist Glen Hodgson.

The Conference Board says monetary policy — interest rate action by the Bank of Canada — may be reaching its limit of effectiveness and more is needed to jolt the economy back into growth.

“Governments can’t afford to wait 18 months for the full benefit of lower interest rates to kick in,” Hodgson stated.

“Complementary fiscal action must now ride to the rescue. Fortunately, Canada is in a much stronger fiscal position than most other nations and can easily absorb fiscal deficits over the near term.”

Canada’s economy has grown only marginally for much of the last year and is now in recession, with little growth expected before late 2009. Unemployment is expected to rise above seven per cent next year, with continued weakness in mining, oil and gas, forestry and manufacturing, especially the auto sector.

The central bank has cut interest rates by 1.5 percentage points this fall to encourage borrowing, spending and business investment. But the Conference Board says rate cuts take a year and a half to fully kick in, and the economy can’t wait.

It says federal government stimulus equal to as much as one per cent of the economy should be targeted toward shovel-ready infrastructure projects, ensuring companies have access to credit, and putting cash into the hands of people who urgently need it.

The Conference Board’s call for lavish deficit spending comes as many other groups urge Finance Minister Jim Flaherty to get more money into the economy to stimulate activity.

Bank of Montreal economists called on Flaherty last week to pour $16 billion into a stimulus package in the Jan. 27 budget.

Among specific measures, the Conference Board recommends:

* Immediately increasing direct support to the unemployed, since they will spend the money quickly
* Additional financial support to low-income people
* New programs for workers directly hit by the recession.

“Put money in the hands of Canadians who are going to spend it, particularly low-income Canadians,” Hodgson said in an interview.

“And that’s why we talk about the working income tax credit and the child tax benefit as tools that could be used right away.”

He added that government action could counteract what he sees as a problem of low expectations.

“A lot of this is psychological, as well as the real spending in our economy,” Hodgson said.

“And if governments are bold and announce bold initiatives, that will help to shape a better attitude in everybody.”

Hodgson also said measures to loosen up the frozen commercial credit market would help companies borrow to invest and create jobs.

“The trouble is credit conditions are not normal, banks are not passing along the full rate cuts because they can’t — their cost of funds has gone way up so they’re preserving cash just like everybody else,” he said.

“There are a lot of signs that monetary policy is not providing all the juice required. In fact, if you look at the behaviour of governments around the world, they’re all turning now to deficit spending, to fiscal stimulus, to get their economies going.”

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the Star:
http://www.thestar.com/News/Ontario/article/554388

If Big Three automakers go out of business, the entire economy will be devastated, report says
Dec 16, 2008 04:30 AM
Robert Benzie
Rob Ferguson
QUEEN’S PARK BUREAU

Ontario would lose 517,000 jobs within five years if the Big Three automakers went out of business, according to a new provincial report obtained by the Star.

The review, prepared for the Ministry of Economic Development and to be released today, warns the collapse of General Motors, Ford and Chrysler would send lasting shock waves through the economy.

If auto output by U.S.-based manufacturers in Canada were cut in half, at least 157,000 jobs would be lost right away, 141,000 of them in Ontario. By 2014, job losses would rise to 296,000 nationally, including 269,000 here.

If production were to cease completely, 323,000 jobs would be lost immediately in Canada, including 281,800 in this province, rising to 582,000 nationally and 517,000 in Ontario by 2014.

The Ontario Manufacturing Council, an arm’s-length provincial government panel, commissioned the 11-page report, which was prepared by the Centre for Spatial Economics. The report paints a gloomy picture if governments at Queen’s Park, in Ottawa, and in Washington do not bail out the automakers.

“The depreciation of the dollar, lower interest rates, and lower production costs eventually help the economy to partially recover (over the following five years, 2015 to 2019) but the loss of the Detroit Three leaves a permanent dent in Canada’s economy in terms of jobs and output,” the report says.

“For any Canadians who feel that the auto industry is expendable to our economy, this report is a wake-up call,” Economic Development Minister Michael Bryant said in an interview yesterday.

“This report suggests that even under a scenario where half the auto sector is lost, our economy (in Ontario) basically craters and brings the whole rest of the (Canadian) economy with it,” Bryant said.

The damage would extend well beyond the auto and related parts industries to housing and a broad range of consumer spending, said Jayson Myers, an economist who is president of Canadian Manufacturers and Exporters.

Myers is a co-chair of the manufacturing council with Jim Stanford, economist for the Canadian Auto Workers union.

“We were surprised how big the impact is. … It shows the importance of ensuring we maintain production here.”

The impact on citizens would be huge, Bryant predicted.

“If the auto industry is somehow allowed to part (from) our economy, it’s the equivalent of a nuclear winter with lasting effects … and would require enormous cuts to public services plus massive deficits every year.”

North American automobile demand is already down to 11 million vehicles from a previous 19 million.

“Let’s hope that doesn’t last long,” said Myers. “I’m pretty certain we will see demand rebound, but certainly it won’t rebound to 19 million units.”

Because automakers have been offering plenty of sales incentives and rebates in the past few years, which eat into future sales, “it’s not going to be easy” to get demand up given the economic crunch facing consumers, Myers said.

Nor could Japanese-based automakers like Toyota and Honda, which already build cars and trucks in Ontario, be expected to fill the void left by GM, Ford and Chrysler.

“The economic impacts estimated by this analysis are likely to understate the true economic impact for several reasons, despite the possibility that foreign vehicle producers could expand production in Canada,” the report states.

First, “a permanent contraction of the motor vehicle industry would negatively impact the U.S. and, indeed, the global economy, reducing the demand for Canadian exports from all industries.”

That would depress prices of commodities such as oil and minerals, hurting resource-rich provinces like Alberta and Saskatchewan.

Second, the bankruptcy of any of the Big Three automakers might have serious implications for their pension funds and retirees’ incomes.

Third, the study suggests “more than 80 per cent of the parts industry would vanish in the event of the failure of all three Detroit companies,” which would temporarily disrupt foreign automakers’ production in North America.

A subsequent housing slump would cast a pall over construction jobs as well as hurt the retail, insurance, real estate and financial services sectors, the report said.

Bryant said it underscores the necessity of keeping the Big Three in business.

“We have to mitigate the impact as much as possible.”

The study comes as Ottawa and Queen’s Park are preparing a $3.4 billion (Cdn.) emergency aid package if Washington comes through with a $14 billion (U.S.) rescue.

The U.S. Senate last week rejected a $14 billion bailout, but President George W. Bush is expected to resurrect it as early as this week.

In Canada, both levels of government are still determining how much money Ottawa and Queen’s Park would each contribute.

Both Prime Minister Stephen Harper and Premier Dalton McGuinty have been in constant contact and Ottawa is talking with the White House to track the status of the U.S. bailout, Bryant said.

In the wake of Harper’s offer of help for automakers, Alberta Premier Ed Stelmach yesterday urged assistance for his province as well.

Stelmach asked Ottawa to match the $2 billion Alberta is spending on carbon capture and storage technology to fight climate change, saying it would generate tax revenue and create manufacturing jobs across the country.